Foreign milk powder giant secretly forces two children New Deal

The news of the release of the two-child policy made the dairy industry take the lead and benefited directly. The most immediate manifestation of this late-adjusted benefit is that the dairy stocks in the subsequent stock market thrived - the news was announced the next day, the domestic stock market Cody Dairy, Beinmei, Yantang The dairy industry rushed to the upside, and Bright and Yili also gained a lot. At the same time, Yashili and Synbiotics in Hong Kong stocks generally rose by more than 5%. The foreign dairy products stocks are also reluctant to gain the top spot in their respective markets. On Thursday, local time, the share price of Mead Johnson soared by 3.77%, France's Danone Group rose by 1.52%, and Shengyuan International, which was listed on the Nasdaq, also rose by 5.04%.

Market: Foreign milk powder giants perform low-key performance on the two-child New Deal

“The full release of the two children will at least bring about a 20% increase in the milk powder industry, which is equivalent to a large pie dropped in the sky!” said a distributor working in the baby milk powder import business. As the first domestic mother and child nutrition food production company listed on the Nasdaq in the United States, Shengyuan International told a Beijing Youth Daily reporter yesterday that the release of the two children must be of great benefit to the baby industry including milk powder. The market opportunity brought by this policy is very confident and will pay more attention to product quality and communication services with consumers in the future.”

However, reporters from the Beijing Youth Daily also found that many foreign brands of milk powder have low-profile performance. Mead Johnson responded only to the policy when he responded to the Beijing Youth Daily reporter. He believes that the two-child policy will promote balanced population development and improve population development strategies. , and general expression of importance to the Chinese market, will also pay close attention to the specific content of the policy adjustment, but did not disclose the company's own plans. Another foreign milk powder brand, Dumex, said that officials are not commenting on the matter at present.

Fonterra is the world's largest dairy raw material supplier, and many of the global milk powder giants are downstream customers. However, Fonterra yesterday did not respond to the baby milk powder business that had been sent to China's domestic dairy company Beinmei, and Bein America did not want to say anything more to the public yesterday.

For foreign milk powder giants, there are industry analysts, and it is the practice of these foreign-funded enterprises to prudently implement policies that have not yet been formally implemented. However, it does not mean that it does not mean that they do not do so. It is certainly necessary to step up the market research after releasing China’s second child. To step up.

Analysis: Let's open two children is more favorable for imported products

Previously, industry agencies predicted that with the current market size of 16 million newborns and nearly 70 billion yuan of milk powder, considering various factors, the number of newly-increased infants in the future should be about 30% each year, or about 2.1 million. However, some organizations believe that the 30% estimate is too optimistic and the 20% increase is more reliable, which means that the overall increase in the market for baby milk brought by the two children is about 14 billion yuan.

Regardless of whether it is 20% or 30%, it has brought about a notable increase in the market. There are also industry analysts who analyze it. Due to the timing of the release of the second child, it is very likely that the promotion of foreign milk powder will be even greater, because The families who are willing to have two children are more economically stronger.

According to a foreign milk powder importer, the previous separate second-child policy has released a batch of “post-80s” and “post-90s” fertility enthusiasms. Now, the first to eager for the second child should be relatively good economic strength. In the “after-70s” group, they have greater demand for foreign or domestic high-end milk powder. While brands such as Yili, Mengniu, Sanyuan, and Junlebao, which were originally based on liquid milk, have entered the field of baby milk powder, the market share of first and second-tier cities is quite limited, mainly in the low-end products. In his opinion, the two-child New Deal's promotion of the entire baby industry may have a greater degree of benefit for imported products than domestic brands, and the benefits of medium- to high-end products will be higher than those for middle-to-low-end products. For this analysis, many milk powder companies also expressed their approval, at least in the early stages of policy liberalization should have this trend.

Although I don’t say anything, many companies are already secretly refueling. South Korea's daily dairy industry signed a cooperation agreement with Bein America on October 28th and plans to fully enter the Chinese market. South Korea's Nanyang Dairy said that China's full liberalization of the two children will further expand the milk powder market. They plan to expand the distribution network from next year and increase their visibility in the Chinese market.

Almost at the same time, the first Bein Cup China Golden Future Entrepreneurship Competition kicked off after the Second Child New Deal. One of the entrepreneurial advisors in this competition, Xie Hong, was the founder of Bein Beauty. For the newly released two-child policy, he It is believed that the Red Sea competition in the maternal and child industry can be brought about by new changes. “It can be clear that the future parent-child consumption market is large enough, but only when the profit model and team execution are in place, the entrepreneurial project will have the opportunity to embrace this huge market. Get investment and opportunities."

Forecast: Let's open the second child will pull 160 billion bonuses

Huatai Securities predicts that if the full opening of the second child is implemented, it is expected that there will be an increase of 1 million to 2 million newborns each year. In 2018, the number of newborns is expected to exceed 20 million. The consumer dividends it contains are estimated to be in the range of 120 billion to 160 billion yuan per year. The performance of listed companies in the food, toys, maternal and child health, children's apparel, home automobiles, and education and training industries is expected to usher in explosive growth.

Founder Securities believes that releasing the two children will not affect the economic growth in the short term, and the dividends are mainly in the long run. According to the relatively optimistic fertility scenario, the first five years (2016 to 2020) after the release of the two children, the potential growth rate of the Chinese economy will only slightly increase by 0.066%, which is almost negligible. However, with the changes in the demographic structure and the formation of a new round of demographic dividends, its contribution to the potential growth of China's GDP will gradually increase, among which will be 2025 to 2035, 2035 to 2045, 2045 to 2055, and 2055. The potential GDP growth rate from year to 2065 and 2065 to 2075 will increase by up to 0.44%, 1.09%, 1.54%, 1.69% and 1.72%, respectively, and this pulse will gradually decrease. The main significance of letting go of the two children is that the positive factors in the medium and long-term growth structure are rising. China can escape from the low fertility trap, which will affect the asset price expectations.

In the short term, the arrival of the second-baby baby boom will drive the development of related foods, toys, maternal and child health care, children's apparel, home automobiles, and education and training. According to the fertility neutral situation and the average urban and rural cost of raising 200,000 before the age of 16 years, the two-baby baby boom has a consumption bonus of about 160 billion yuan per year. In this regard, the market has relatively full expectations and there is no expected difference.