Food prices rise due to drought in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River

Some parts of the five provinces of Hunan, Hubei, Jiangxi, Anhui, and Jiangsu in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River have suffered the most severe drought since the founding of the People’s Republic of China. As a traditional “land of fish and rice” in China, the drought in five provinces affects the local people and the impact on the country is gradually exposed. . In the past few days, the reporter visited some markets in Guangzhou and found that in the Guangzhou market, household goods, such as rice, vegetables, and aquatic products, which are closely related to the drought conditions in the five provinces, have gone up in price; for example, Hubei Xiantao fragrant rice rose to 2.7 yuan/kg; Hunan's lotus root rose to 4 yuan/jin; even the Chinese cabbage, also changed the loss situation that no one cares about before January, the price generally rises...

It is reported that in the composition of CPI, food weight currently accounts for about 30% of CPI, and vegetables account for about 20% of food weight. In the context of food “a rising tone”, industry insiders report to reporters that food prices have risen. Large pressure will increase inflationary pressures, and CPI gains will remain high. In May, the CPI may be around 5.4%, or more will hit a new high in 34 months.

Rice: A further increase in price in 3 days. The reporter visited yesterday and found out that in Guangzhou, rice from Hubei, known as “the land of fish and rice” and “the province of Qianhu Lake,” has taken a step toward “price increase”. In a stall at the Lujiang Meat Market, the reporter saw that Hubei Xiantao fragrant rice was 2.7 yuan/kg, and Hubei Honghu City was a kind of fragrant rice 2.8 yuan/kg. The owner told the reporter, “There are two kinds of rice produced in Hubei, more than three. The price rose a few cents a day ago. The prices of rice produced in other regions also increased."

Last year's severe drought in southwestern China, the impact of rice prices in Guangzhou was not significant, and the drought in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River will inevitably affect the public’s pockets. The relevant person in charge of the Rural Work Office of the Guangdong Provincial Party Committee told the reporter that Guangdong has the highest food self-sufficiency rate of about 50% in history. Therefore, Guangdong rice depends on the supply of other provinces, of which Hunan and Jiangxi are the most common provinces in Guangdong.

According to the latest data, the prices of early glutinous rice from Hunan and Hubei in the previous month rose against the market and rose by 0.29% compared with the previous month. Rice in other Jiangsu, Jiangxi, and Heilongjiang provinces were flat or declining.

However, it cannot exaggerate the impact of drought on the supply of rice. China's grain production is dominated by autumn grain. As far as the country is concerned, the production of summer grain accounts for only a small proportion of the total grain output, which is about 20% to 30%. And the country has achieved great harvest for many years of continuous food production.

“It will be difficult to judge whether the drought in Hubei will lead to a reduction in early rice production. Because last year's flood disaster reduced production by 6.1%, due to a small base, whether this year will continue to reduce production due to drought. It is still too early to say,” said Li Guoxiang, a research fellow at the Institute of Rural Development of the Chinese Academy of Sciences. Newspaper. “But the current drought expectation has also pushed up prices.”

Vegetables: In April, the price of Hunan's lotus roots rose 10%. Affected by such factors as supply, the overall vegetable prices in the country continued to fall. The prices of individual varieties dropped sharply, causing slow sales, backlogs, and prices of vegetables and other commodities to fall significantly. The decline in the price of vegetables is generally considered to be the main reason for the fall in the CPI increase in April.

However, the reporter visited the Jiangnan Fruit and Vegetable Wholesale Market yesterday and found that the prices of lotus root and Chinese cabbage in the market have risen a lot. Taking lotus root as an example, the price fluctuates between 2.5 yuan and 3.5 yuan a month ago, and yesterday the price has risen to 4 yuan/kg. Li Xiaoyun, the 521 stall owner of the five districts of fresh vegetables in the Jiangnan Fruit and Vegetable Wholesale Market, told reporters that the “basic” Chinese cabbage in vegetables was taken as an example. Nearly a month's price can be described as bottoming out.

At the beginning of May, the price of Chinese cabbage could not be sold for 2 cents per pound, and on May 17, a good 8 kilograms of pounds of cabbage from Yunnan and a pound of 6 cents. The price of various leafy vegetables, such as Chinese cabbage, spinach and lettuce, has risen again. Chinese cabbage has risen to about 1 yuan per kilogram from 0.6 yuan.

Aquatic products: crawfish production cut nearly 30% in the same period last year. Hubei is the country’s largest freshwater product province. Drought has a severe impact on local fish fry and crayfish, and some freshwater fish breeding are also affected. It is reported that, affected by the drought, Hubei crawfish this year almost cut 50%.

The reporter went to Chengji Road, a specialized crayfish restaurant on Xidu Road yesterday. The boss told reporters that the wholesale price of crawfish, mainly from Hunan and Hubei, was 30% higher than the same period last year, but we did not dare to follow the rise in retail sales. In fact, the price of spicy lobster at 28 yuan last year was 30 yuan/jin this year, but the wholesale price has reached almost 20 yuan/kg, which is 5 to 6 yuan more than last year. /jin.

Not only Hubei, but also several other provinces affected by the drought are also the major provinces of aquaculture in China. The freshwater aquaculture production in the four provinces alone accounts for 42.58% of the country's total. If the subsequent drought is not effectively alleviated, the price of freshwater products will be on a rising trend throughout the year. The relevant person in charge of the Fisheries Bureau of Nanhai District of the Ministry of Agriculture told the reporter that starting on May 16th, the fishing season in the South China Sea area officially started. With multiple factors superimposed, the price of aquatic products on the market in Guangzhou is difficult to say.

Analysis: The price of agricultural products will increase by 9% this year

Earlier, the price of pork in the whole country has risen steadily (see the newspaper A10 on May 19, 2011, “The price of live pigs has gone up 60% in a year, pig farmers are afraid of losing money into the market”). The drought in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River has once again pulled The impact of other food prices on the CPI in May was not small, or even set a new high in 34 months. The “Green Paper on Rural Economy” published by the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences in 2011 points out that under normal circumstances, the total grain output in 2011 may reach 550 million tons, which will record new highs and increase production for eight consecutive years. Under the state's effective control of the agricultural product market, it is expected that the increase in the production price of agricultural products will fall in 2011 and is expected to increase at 9%.

According to Li Guoxiang's prediction, the short-term impact of drought on the local area is greater, but the impact on the macro economy is relatively small. “The impact of the drought on the CPI is very small. The main impact on the CPI is the increase in input prices. The supply and demand of corn is tight, and other products that require corn also follow up, such as eggs and meat,” the industry analysts said. Under such circumstances, the pressure of rising food prices will increase inflationary pressures and CPI inflation will remain high.

Oriental Wenger’s analyst Ma Wenfeng said in an interview with this newspaper that, if meat prices do not rise, the CPI may be at 5%. However, considering the changes in China's price in early May and the impact of the latest price increase incident, it is expected that CPI will remain at 5.2-5.4% in May; PPI will remain at 6.7-6.9%.