New Round of Pork Prices Rise Again in Agriculture

“I have seen pigs run and eaten pork, but I have not seen such expensive pork.” On July 5, after taking a look at the price tag above the meat stalls, Chen Jian, who came to buy vegetables at the triangular food garden in Shanghai’s Wan’an Road, Not without emotion. "Pure meat 18 yuan / kg, ribs 26 yuan / kg, with a wallet heart 17.5 yuan / kg, with skin and leg meat 17 yuan / kg, loin meat 20 yuan / kg ... ..." in this golden cold meat yellow In the price tag on the black background, the figures that have been altered many times are quite eye-catching.

"The current price has exceeded the level of February 2008." The stall owner told reporters. In his memory, the price of pork at the time of 22,88 yuan per kilogram was "the highest in ten years." He "didn't expect this record to be surpassed so quickly, and it was during the summer months that this was the off-season time for pork."

“Some places have even seen a “one-day-a-price” rise.” The data detected by relevant departments such as the Ministry of Commerce and the Ministry of Agriculture also confirmed that pork prices “have risen loudly”. From past experience, pork prices have a greater impact on CPI. So, what are the reasons for the rapid rise in pork prices this round? In fact, as the price of pigs continues to rise, pigs in Shandong, Jilin, Hubei and other pig producing areas have begun to appear “grabbing pigs”. This has also caused many people in the industry to start worrying about the “roller coaster” market where prices have gone up and down again.

Industry "period law"

Looking at the empty scene in the pig farm, Wang Wensheng, head of the Wanshun Taihu pig farm in Suqian City, Jiangsu Province, sighed to the reporter: “I have a bad life.”

The agricultural product processing industry reported that there were more than 200 sows and thousands of hogs on the Taishun pig farm in Wanshun, but they had to kill most of the sows during the last round of pork price cuts, leaving only 20 mothers. Pigs and a few piglets.

"The price of pigs dropped sharply in 2008 and 2009. The more you lose, the more you lose. You can't go on. You couldn't handle most of the sows and piglets in early 2010. You can't afford it! I really didn't expect this year's pork prices to be so good. I was left at both ends," Wang Wensheng said.

Treatment of sows at the time was not a "case." The reporter found that around June 2010, Sichuan, Jilin, and Jiangxi provinces continued to fall below cost prices due to the price of pork.

“This time, the price of meat rose due to cyclical fluctuations in pork prices.” Wang Xiaoyue, animal husbandry analyst at Beijing Oriental AIG Agricultural Consulting Co., Ltd. told reporters.

“The price of pork in the same period last year has reached the lowest price for the whole year last year. This is because the increase in pork prices in 2008 was very good. Plus the country’s economic subsidy to encourage sows to raise, which led to the increase in sows at that time. The sows that were added in 2008 will normally have two or three litters of piglets for sale, and the increased number of live pigs will be directly reflected in the amount of pigs slaughtered last year. Because of this, only a large number of farmers have suffered serious losses and abandoned the pig raising situation. This has directly led to the apparent shortage of pigs in the middle of this year."

Like Wang Xiaoyue, Feng Yonghui, general manager and chief analyst of China Live Swine Early Warning Network, also believes that the primary reason for the “hot price of pork prices” in a year is the “supply and demand” relationship affected by the periodic price of pork.

The problem of live pig disease at the end of last year and early this year has exacerbated the imbalance in the supply and demand relationship. It turned out that the epidemic diarrhea before and after the Spring Festival was a devastating blow to the production of piglets. In general, sows produce more than 10 calves, but the result is a rare "only child" or "twins" phenomenon, which directly affects the current supply of pork.

Inflation of pork samples "forget it, or do not buy pork." July 5, the reporter found that the high price of pork so that Chen Jian chose other meat.

However, Zhong Jianhua of the Chengde Liang breeder farm in Suqian City, Jiangsu Province, told reporters that they did not earn any money. "Although this year's market is good, it is considered that we have made up for the deficits of the previous two years. However, to tell the truth, we really do not make any money," Zhong Jianhua said.

On the other side, people in the city can't afford to eat pork. On the other side, the pig farmers complain that "in fact, they haven't earned any money."

It turned out that in addition to the cyclical changes in supply and demand, the "crazyness" of pork prices is also related to the general background of the entire society's inflation, which directly led to a significant increase in the cost of raising pigs.

“An important reason for the rise in pork prices is the increase in costs.” Feng Yonghui pointed out that “the proportion of corn in the pig feed is the largest, and the latter’s price has risen not very small this year. In addition, human and There are also a number of increases in transportation costs. According to Feng Yonghui's calculation, the cost of raising pigs at this time last year was about RMB 4 per catty, and this figure was directly pushed up to 6.5 yuan this year.

According to Wang Wensheng, the company's raising cost per pig has risen by about 180 yuan this year. Among them, the price of corn feed is now 2.34 yuan per kilogram, which is an increase of about 0.45 yuan over the same period of last year. According to data recently released by the Ministry of Commerce, the national corn price rose by 9.8% year-on-year, and the average purchase price of corn by aquaculture companies also rose by 9.8%.

As far as labor costs are concerned, a direct reflection is that rising prices have led to an increase in workers' wages. "Original workers' average monthly wage is about 1,800 yuan, but now it is 2,200 yuan."

The increase in labor costs, as well as the invisible influence, has led to a large number of free-market households that have played a compensator role in the pork price market. In this connection, Wang Jimin, director of the Animal Husbandry and Economics Research Institute of the Institute of Agricultural Economics and Development of the Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, specifically stated that: "Last year from the end of last year to the beginning of this year, the shortage of migrant workers has occurred across the country, which means that migrant workers, especially young laborers, are in a tight state. Pig-raising farmers are faced with the choice of going out to work or continuing to raise pigs. Since last year pork prices have been falling in the trough, some of the free-ranging households have opted out of the pig raising market to work in cities, resulting in a reduction in the supply of live pigs."

It is worth noting that the rise in pork price itself may bring about a surge in CPI. Some organizations pointed out that compared with the beginning of June, the current price of pork rose by 13% within a month. Therefore, "although the price of fruit has fallen, the prices of vegetables, aquatic products and meat have continued to rise in June, and the CPI for the month may have risen by 6.5% year-on-year."

The regulation solution "The recent pork price is so high that people who buy meat are significantly less." The above-mentioned Jinyu cold meat stall owner said. Similarly, the downstream industry is not easy. The reporter noted that the restaurant shied away from pork prices by directly raising prices or reducing meat dishes.

In fact, those pig farmers who have benefited from the increase in pork prices in this round are also mixed. "We were really scared by this "roller coaster" market," Wang Wensheng told reporters.

In this regard, Wang Xiaoyue pointed out that taking into account the elasticity of the supply of the live pig market is greater than the elasticity of demand, so can not rely solely on the market self-regulation, and ** is not entirely unable to regulate the hog market, but need to pay attention to ways and means.

However, as an industry expert consulted by the National Development and Reform Commission, Feng Yonghui is not very optimistic about the adjustment of **. "A review of the measures adopted by the various levels of ** to adjust the price of pork in recent years will find that there is a dilemma of 'more and more disordered'."

In particular, Feng Yonghui mentioned that in August 2007, in response to rising pig prices, the State Council promulgated the "Opinions on Promoting Pig Production and Stabilizing Market Supply". In the following year, the Ministry of Finance also successively introduced ten policies to support pig breeding.

“Over the years, the competent authorities have firmly believed that the main cause of pork price fluctuations is the low level of scale and industrialization of China’s hog production. They want to follow the example of the United States because the latter’s experience shows that when scaled farming accounts for the market, Over 80% of the pork prices will stabilize and industrial risks will be controlled.I understand this, but the increase in pork prices at the time has already stimulated pig farmers to increase their production. The series of incentive measures to increase the enthusiasm of pig farmers, resulting in a significant increase in pig production capacity in a short period of time, followed by the rapid decline in prices.” Feng Yonghui pointed out.

“Regulating the production of live pigs does not eliminate fluctuations, but rather, on the premise of respecting the laws of the market, try to avoid the waste of resources and industrial damage caused by excessive fluctuations.” Feng Yonghui pointed out: “Comparing to the implementation of large-scale production, we should The provision of early warning information for pigs should be better protected against pig disease."