Agricultural products bottom or locked September 9 long under the shadow

After a sharp rise in July and August, the agricultural products market in September may fluctuate. However, we believe that the bull market for agricultural products may have started, and the stronger fundamentals will reduce the overall market downturn. For the domestic market, the Long Shadow Line on September 9 may be the ultimate target for the adjustment of the market for legume oils. After the adjustment is completed, the market's upside will be further opened.

The parity effect of soybean and corn supported soybean prices Although the fundamental differences of the three major agricultural products such as soybean, corn, and wheat were relatively large, the interaction among the three remained relatively tight, mainly because of the difference in crop growth efficiency implied by the parity effect. Affect the competition between the crops sown area. From the perspective of CBOT corn, the uptrend seems to have just started. Even if the dust may settle due to production problems in September, there is no new bad and China may continue to increase corn import expectations. CBOT corn has limited room to fall. . From the currently low ratio of CBOT soybean/corn, soybeans lag behind in this round of agricultural product growth. Therefore, as long as there is no deep adjustment in grain crops in September, the adjustment space for CBOT soybeans will also be greatly reduced. Once the U.S. Department of Agriculture report predicts a decrease in U.S. corn production, corn gains will be rekindled. CBOT soybeans will surely follow the corn in order to win the corresponding planting area in the coming year.

The cyclical law of soybean CBBC operation From the statistics of CBBC history in the history of US soybean, the start of a bull market requires at least one year and a half to two years of storage period. The last round of the bull market in 2008 went through a period of 1 year and 8 months in February 2005-September 2006. The bull market started in October 2006. Calculated from the time period, from 2008 to June 2010, which lasted 1 year and 7 months, has it been revealed whether the new bull market has been completed and whether the bull market for bean products has already started in July? ? The market outlook remains to be tested. However, from the analysis of the operating characteristics and fundamentals of the previous bull market, we believe that the soybean market has entered a bull market, but it is still in a slow period of rising shocks. After experiencing the rise in July and August, it is expected that the September market may have a relatively high level of volatility similar to the November-December period of 2006, and maintain a similar pattern of three retreats and retreats. It rose, but the adjustment was quite limited.

The market has been poised to organize. Since July, US wheat has caused a significant increase in overall agricultural products. The continuous influx of funds into agricultural products is a solid guarantee for deepening the rally. And from the two months of capital flow and market performance, agricultural products have also come out of the pattern of sectoral rotations such as the start of the 2006 agricultural bull market. The first was CBOT wheat, followed by CBOT corn. CBOT soybeans and corn were the same due to the existence of the parity effect, and they played the march of agricultural products. This time from the direction of the flow of funds, the short-term CBOT wheat cash flow has signs of retreat, but the futures positions of CBOT corn have remained stable and there is still an upward trend, indicating that funds are still optimistic about the future trend of corn. From the flow of funds for bean products, soybeans and soybean meal were favored by funds due to strong demand. Soybean oil was temporarily abandoned due to the drag of crude oil prices. From the perspective of the depth of funding intervention, funds are still relatively optimistic about the late-stage trend of the beans, especially soybeans and soybean meal products.

On the other hand, the non-commercial net excess positions of soybeans and corn varieties are too high, which is unfavorable to the continued rise of the market. From the statistical rule of non-commercial net multi-positions of agricultural products over 20 years: Soybean varieties, when the net-to-rich ratio reaches 25-28%, the fund is under great pressure to reduce, in our statistical sample, more than 30% of net More than one ratio has only appeared once, and the second week quickly fell back below 25%; corn varieties, non-commercial net multi-position ratio entered 20%, entered the capital risk area, but in the corn-level rise, non-maize corn Business net positions often exceed 25%, but then face greater pressure to lighten up.

As of August 31, the ratio of non-commercial net positions in soybeans, soybean meal, and corn was 27.1%, 32.5%, and 30%, respectively. We believe that there will be greater pressure on speculative funds in soybeans, soybean meal and corn varieties for a period of time. Under such circumstances, the market may be likely to be dominated by fluctuations in the coming period.